The opinion polls that preceded the European Parliament (EP) elections predicted that the parties which are wrongly called "extreme right", but actually proto-fascist, would grow in strength and become an effective contender for power. This has come true. The parties under consideration gained a total of 146 seats, with the following shares: Coalition of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) led by Brothers of Italy (FdI) won 73 seats, the French National Rally’s Identity and Democracy (ID) Coalition 58, and Alternative for Germany (AfD) 15. This number is equal to slightly one-fifth of the total seats (720) in the European Parliament and means a 28-seat increase compared to the far right’s previous record-setting score (18%) in the 2019 EP elections.
In Germany, the “center-right and left” parties lost a significant number of votes (the Christian Democrats, CDU/CSU, slightly less than others). The Social-Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) retreated to 13.9% (worst rate since World War II). SPD’s coalition partner, the Greens, on the other hand, retreated from 20.5% in 2019 to 11.9% in 2024. The parties that currently form the German government were able to secure only 31% of total vote, with the 5.2% addition by Free Democratic Party (FDP) votes. The proto-fascist AfD, with 15.9% of the total vote, rose to second place after the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU, 30%) and first place in the eastern regions. The Left Party gained 2.7%. The nationalist-leaning left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded by politicians who split from the Left, rose to some prominence in the very first election they entered. They secured 6.2% of the national vote and 13.8% in the East, allowing them to send six delegates to the parliament.
Who voted for AfD and BSW and why? This question is important in evaluating the rise of proto-fascist and nationalist parties in Germany. The most important factor in AfD’s rise to the second place was its ability to snatch away votes from CDU/CSU (570 thousand) and SPD (570 thousand). A significant turn of voters from FDP (430 thousand) and the Left (150 thousand) to AfD is also observable. On the other hand, it is possible to say that the SPD (580 thousand), the Left (470 thousand), and AfD (160 thousand) voters turning towards BSW explains this party’s rise.
The AfD gathered votes from the relatively young voters in the 16-29 (17%) and 30-44 (20%) age brackets in the first EP elections where the 16-17-year-old German youth voted for the first time. But more important is the class character of the voters. A rough indicator of this is professional composition. Looking at this indicator, we must emphasize that AfD was able to gain more of the blue-collar (25% of all workers!), white-collar (14%), and public employee (7%) vote compared to previous years. AfD has thereby surpassed the working-class vote of SPD (14% of all workers), who is known to be more organized within the class. It has also gained the same percentage of votes (14%) as SPD among the white-collar workers. On the other hand, SPD has secured more votes among state employees (18%) not only compared to AfD but to all other parties. The same indicator shows that BSW secured 7% of the blue-collar, 6% of the white-collar, 5% of the state employee, and 6% of the self-employed votes. These percentages are both higher than the corresponding rates of the Left and demonstrate an impressive rise for a party that is entering elections for the first time.
The data published by the German Trade Union Association (DGB) is even more striking. The percentage of union members who voted for the AfD in the EP elections was 18.5 percent (compared to 15.9 percent nationwide!), surpassing the percentage of unionized workers who voted for the SPD (18.1 percent, compared to 13.9 percent nationwide), which has long had strong ties with unions.
When voters were asked in surveys "what was the most important factor for you in your electoral choice?", peace came first, social security second and immigration third. In the light of all these data, it is seen that voters in Germany have turned away from center-right or left-wing parties to proto-fascist and nationalist parties, and that most of them are young, workers and unionized.
In Austria, the elections were even more striking in terms of the rise of fascism in Europe than in Germany. The votes of the ruling Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) in Austria dropped by 10 points to 24.7 percent. The party came second in the elections. On the other hand, the proto-fascist Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which is part of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the EP together with the National Rally (Le Pen) and the Dutch Party for Freedom (Geert Wilders), increased its votes by 8.3 points compared to the 2019 elections, as predicted by public opinion polls, and emerged as the first party with 25.5 percent of the vote. With this vote share, the FPÖ became the strongest party in the country for the first time in an election. The Austrian Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) came third with 23.3 percent of the vote.
Research on which segments of the population the FPÖ may have received votes from in terms of professional distribution shows that especially blue-collar workers (44 percent) voted for this party. The FPÖ is almost at the same level as the ÖVP and SPÖ among the parties to which white-collar workers and civil servants tend to vote.
The FPÖ campaigned under the slogan "Stop the EU madness", and according to the results of the polls, migration and war/security problems (44 percent) were the main factors that contributed to the FPÖ's increase in the vote. This is followed by environmental problems (33 percent) and economic and other social problems (especially the cost of living).
The following picture emerges if we were to evaluate the EP election results based on Germany, a crucial country both politically and economically in shaping the future of Europe. The rising energy costs under the pressure of the war in Ukraine, inflation and cost of living climbing correspondingly, impoverishment arising from austerity policies, the housing question resulting from all this, and animosity towards immigrants, who are seen as the scapegoat for all these troubles, have marked these elections. As impactful on this orientation as the economic impoverishment of toilers and modern petite-bourgeoisie (so-called “middle classes”) is the fact that Europe, especially Germany, is experiencing an era of war preparation, with all the ensuing social discontent. The German Chancellor Scholz had put into circulation the word “Zeitenwende” in 2022, right in the wake of the NATO proxy war Ukraine is fighting against Russia, to emphasize that the world (in fact, German imperialism) was at a turning point. The German Society for Science and Politics (SWP), known for its close ties with the German ruling class and bureaucracy, had announced in a report it released last month that “the European states [would be] at another turning point after the US Presidential Elections on November 5th”, and that the “main task” of the German foreign and military policy was to protect the EU and the European NATO members against the “aggressive and revisionist Russia”. It is these conditions that led the working class and various sections of the modern petite bourgeoisie to turn away from the “center” (Greens, social democrats, conservatives) parties, who cannot provide solutions to their troubles, and to seek remedies from nationalist, proto-fascist parties. But what are the determining factors behind this orientation?
World capitalist depression and the impasses of German imperialism
That world capitalism is under the influence of depressive tendencies, and that these tendencies are underscored especially since the 2008 world financial crisis, has been causing the world economy to grow sluggishly for a long time, and dragging down the European economies’ growth. Added to this are the energy costs rising under the pressure of the war in Ukraine and the shattering impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the world economy. All these factors diminish day by day the competitive strength of German capitalism, whose capital accumulation is based mainly on international markets.
The German bourgeoisie had previously close economic and political ties with Russia, which was important both as a market and a source of raw materials. However, it was forced to cut these ties due to the war in Ukraine under the pressure of the US and NATO. That world economy tends to stagnate, and the volume of world trade is therefore shrinking, and the pressure of the exacerbating Sino-US rivalry, drive the German capital, just like all its European counterparts, to a dilemma: on the one hand, the need to continue its relations with China as a source of cheap intermediary input and a huge necessary market; on the other hand, the pressure to cut these ties step by step as a US/NATO ally.
These contradictions facing the German bourgeoisie reveal themselves most clearly in the sphere of foreign policy. Various factions of capital take up a “pro-Atlantic” position and advocate for a US-NATO line (the “globalist” wing). Others wish to continue good relations with Russia and China, and in the meanwhile emerge as an autonomous military force (nationalist wing). Despite their differences, the rise of both proto-fascist AfD and of the nationalist-leftist BSW must be explained as the result of various German bourgeois factions’ reaction to the intra-class conflict of “Moscow or Washington?”.
These inner contradictions that the German bourgeoisie experiences in the face of exacerbating rivalry in the world market and imperialist dominion also undermine its hegemonic position within the EU. The EU is the most important tool in the hands of German imperialism to become a locus of power autonomous vis-à-vis the USA and China. But the aim to orient the EU according to its own goals and the steps it takes towards this end heighten the contradictions the German bourgeoisie has with its French, Italian, etc. counterparts. The result of all this is rising tensions within the executive branch of the EU imperialist structure, i.e., the European Parliament. Since these tensions strengthen disintegrating tendencies on nationalist grounds (“Germany First”, “France First”, etc.), they almost undermine the entire EU as well.
Whether the German bourgeoisie’s goal to grow independent from the US as a military force and grow its sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and to create a European Army with the French bourgeoisie will become a reality in the near future hinges on both the policy the US will pursue, and whether the German bourgeoisie will be able to protect its hegemonic position within the EU.
The introduction of the concept “Zeitenwende” into circulation in social life is an expression of a new strategic maneuver in the policy to resolve the dead-ends facing German imperialism and militarism. It is difficult to foresee whether this maneuver will be effective in resolving these said dead-ends. But one thing is for certain: the country is being step by step geared towards a war economy. The “social democratic” Minister of Defense of the German Government, Boris Pistorius, was explaining that Germany should be “ready for a war” (kriegstüchtig) until 2029, and that the compulsory military duty for the youth should therefore be reinstated, shortly before the European Parliamentary elections. The goal to raise the defense spending to 4% of the national GDP is also often articulated.
The crisis of the bourgeois regime and left reformism
All German parties that are hegemonic within the EU and enjoy the biggest representation in the EP, from SPD and the Greens to CDU/CSU and FDP, shamelessly asked for votes in the name of “upholding European values” and “protecting the peace” as well as warning against a “rightwing shift” (AfD and BSW need to be analyzed separately). As if it wasn’t these parties themselves who had supported Israel’s genocide in Gaza and the military and financial suppliers of the NATO/US war’s escalation in Ukraine against Russia. As if it wasn’t these parties who had entertained similar ideas to their rivals about anti-immigrant plans, energy crisis, and the austerity measures that undergirded impoverishment. As if it wasn’t the “center-right” parties led by CDU/CSU who had not negotiated and signalled collaboration and “normalization” with proto-fascist party leaders, such as Le Pen in France and Meloni in Italy, to raise support for Ursula von der Leyen for EP Presidency. But the list doesn’t end there! What about the reformist, class-collaborationist and social dialogue-oriented policies that the Left and the unions have been pursuing for decades?
Here we need to analyze separately the parties distinct from the reformist ones, such as the proto-fascist AfD and the nationalist-leftist BSW. There are of course irreducible differences between the programs of these parties. However, as evidenced by the election results, they share common policies that speak to the worries and interests of the youth, the workers, and sections of the modern petite-bourgeoisie, which in turn enables voter shifts between the two. The actual goal of both parties is not to defend the interests of the “people” or the “little man”, but to uphold economic-nationalist measures aimed towards rendering the interests of a certain section of the German bourgeoisie and imperialism independent from US imperialism, and thereby solidify the place of German imperialism in the world economy. Both parties’ defense of the German worker and the German small and middle-scale firm (“Mittelstand”) in fact consist ultimately of upholding the German big capital against its international competitors. Therefore, these parties can align with their rivals over austerity policies or anti-immigrant measures, but in foreign policy, for instance, oppose the sanctions against Russia and defend a “more balanced” relation with Russia and China. They nonetheless keep upholding NATO policies and support German rearmament.
To sum up, the greatest share of responsibility for the acceleration of fascisization in the EP elections, as seen in the specific German context, falls upon the left-reformist parties and unions. These actors hope to gain anything by binding the privileged sections of the working class and the modern petite bourgeoisie to the German bourgeoisie’s tail, and therefore abandoning the core sections of the working class and refrain from consciously centering the problems of the working class and other oppressed strata in their agenda. Instead, they seek solutions to social problems in collaboration with the big bourgeoisie and “social dialogue”. Parties such as AfD and BSW, on the other hand, foreground economic nationalism – “German industry and worker first!” – in seeking solutions to social problems. However, there is no future for the toilers in this policy of class collaborationism with the bourgeoisie. The ongoing economic stagnation and the intensifying inter-imperialist rivalry necessitate that this or that faction of the German capital increase its attack on all toilers, and German workers first and foremost, and thereby hollow out any possible demand for reform. Therefore, it is this very policy of class-collaborationism that undermine these parties by subjecting the toiling classes that constitute their base to calamities, which in turn force the strata in question to seek solutions from nationalist and fascist parties.
How to stop the rise of fascism?
This is where the true importance of the 2024 EP elections lies. The EP elections demonstrate the surpassing of a threshold in the globalist wing of the bourgeoisie’s move into the political orbit of the nationalist and racist fascist wing. The most important result of this move in the near future will be the intensification of the preparations for a war economy and the needs of the defense industry- and military-centric restructuring gaining strategic privileges in economic and social life (we already showed evidences for this above). That reactionary parties with a fascist character will be able to decide on the future of German and European imperialism in open or secret collaboration with a series of conservative-right parties just when the continent finds itself on the verge of a new world war constitutes an important threat to the global workers’ movement, and foremost to its European section. For the German bourgeoisie will make the German and European working people pay the price of its “leap” towards becoming a military force on a world scale again through war economy, austerity policies, and intensification of attacks on the working class (limiting of union’s rights, exacerbation of working conditions, lowering of the wages, etc.).
The era of a wake up call is over. Our era is that of deciding which class will hit the emergency brakes. The 2024 EP election results and the composition of the parliament signify, far beyond the electoral arithmetic, that we have entered an era in which class struggles and imperialist crisis will intensify. Famous German revolutionary Karl Liebknecht said regarding imperialism before World War I, “for us in action the old proverb applies: si vis pacem, para bellum; If you want peace, prepare for war. “ If we want the peace of the people, we have to prepare the war, the class struggle, carry out this struggle increasingly at an international level and fuel the fire of struggle,". We have to adopt Liebknecht's point of view, which remains valid today as it was yesterday, and raise the class war against the war of the imperialist bourgeoisie.
The urgent task of the current period for socialists and revolutionary Marxists is to organize the European working class and oppressed peoples by building a "united workers’ front" against fascism as soon as possible. Forward for a United Socialist States of Europe, for a struggle that aims to eliminate the EU as an imperialist device, to nationalize banks and companies under workers' control, in which the working masses organize for a political line independent of the bourgeoisie and the state, and for a workers' power!