Rebellion and revolution spread from Asia to Africa

“The role of youth in these events is very clear. Let us also recall that we drew attention to this issue early on.”

This sentence appears in an article of ours published just 20 days ago in Turkish. The English version of that article (“Revolution Knocks on the Door of the Indian Subcontinent Again”) is going to be published pretty soon on RedMed. That article discusses two major uprisings in two Asian countries (Indonesia and Nepal) in recent months, linking them to previous massive revolutionary uprisings in two other countries (Sri Lanka in 2022 and Bangladesh in 2024) in the vast region known as the Indian subcontinent, arguing that the fire of revolution has recently been raging in Asia. In the article referenced at the beginning of the present article, on the other hand, we had highlighted the crucial role youth has been playing in this latest series of revolutionary onslaught, beginning with Kenya, an East African country, as well as Bangladesh.

In fact, this analysis stemmed from another article we had written just four months earlier (April 2024), in which we had emphasised the importance of youth and argued that a new 1968 was approaching. But the article on Kenya and Bangladesh added a very important element. The prediction of a new 1968, made in April 2024, was inspired by the camp protests that spread across countless American universities and a number of European universities in the spring of 2024 in response to the genocide in Palestine. The article “Who is the New 1968 Youth and What Do They Need?" reached an additional conclusion:

“So, even if it does not replace the university youth of 1968, a new youth is emerging alongside it on the horizon of the new 1968. Poor and destitute youth, with or without degrees, and their siblings who are still of university age! The reason for the difference is clear: 1968 erupted at a time when the economic situation in every country was at its best, relative to its own standards, at the end of one of the longest periods of lively capital accumulation in the history of world capitalism (1945-1975). This new wave comes in the context of one of capitalism's 'century-long crises', the Third Great Depression, a period in which the poor were devastated in every country."

We examined Nepal and Indonesia as the first confirmation of this prediction (the new 1968) and the new characterisation (that the new 1968 would not consist solely of students, but that impoverished youth would be one of the main driving forces). Before the dust had even settled on those two, Indonesia and Nepal, another duo of countries erupted: this time, the island nation of Madagascar in East Africa and the Maghreb country of Morocco, home to Arab and Berber peoples, which are now both being shaken by youth uprisings.

Gen Z, conspiracy theories, the damned of the earth

Before delving into the specific significance of the uprisings in these countries, we must focus on an important phenomenon. In the Nepal uprising, young people fought in the name of “Gen Z”. Now, young people on the streets of both Madagascar and Morocco are adopting the same name, as well as the pirate logo used in Nepal, represented by a skull and crossbones (originally from a Japanese manga drawing). It also appears that the social media site Discord is their favourite. They even tell politicians who address them to “come and discuss it on Discord.” In other words, they seem to be saying, "You can't manipulate us behind closed doors, come to our open space!”

There is also a charming example from Southeast Asia. In countries neighbouring Indonesia, such as Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines, young people are sending food via an app called Grab to their peers who have been street-fighting the state's armed forces in Indonesia for months. The expert mentioning this on French television said, “This is an unprecedented event in the history of popular movements.” It is nice to emphasise the rise of international solidarity. But there is a precedent in this specific instance, let us remind the expert. When the Occupy Wall Street movement erupted nine months after the Egyptian revolution of 2011, Egyptian revolutionaries did not neglect to order pizza for their comrades in New York! Indonesia is not America; its young people are probably busy training on rice and beans, typical of the region!

Now these uprisings, to put it tongue in cheek, of the Gen Z International, will once again provoke a hysterical reaction from conspiracy theorists. “These are movements,” they will pontificate, “artificially provoked by George Soros, his Open Society Foundation, and a series of organisations (Otpor, etc.) supported by this foundation, in order to overthrow the Maoist government of Nepal, and Sheikh Hasina, the Prime Minister of Bangladesh, who was on good terms with China. They are colour revolutions. Those who support them thereby fall into the trap of American imperialism. And now they have prepared this scenario of Gen Z, also skilfully using social media, and all this will appeal to young people. Nepal was the first attempt; once it succeeded, they set their sights on other countries.”

"Conspiracy-mongering," had previously been used with the same terms for the Arab Spring, a massive wave of international revolution (in both of its two phases, in 2011-2013, as well as in 2018-2019). The prosecutors in the Gezi case in Turkey also used this conspiracy theory in their indictment against the popular uprising that began with Gezi and spread throughout Turkey.

This is nowadays a recurring theme on the political left in many countries. In our native Turkey, we debated this issue tirelessly with spokespeople from various currents of the Turkish left in relation to the Arab Spring back in the 2010s. Not to overburden this article, we will only touch on two points here.

First, large-scale social unrest planned and provoked by US imperialism is an undeniable fact of this new century. To the conspiracy theorist who will immediately exclaim, "Ha, now you're admitting it too!", let us say this: “If you continue with this mindset, you will eventually label even truly great revolutions with a century-long impact, such as the Russian Revolution or the Chinese Revolution, ‘colour revolutions’. Be specific. Provide evidence. If you do, then we shall act with caution and question the event at under the microscope. But if you try to smear every uprising, rebellion, and revolution with your Soros, Open Society Foundation, and Otpor rhetoric, we will declare you enemies of the people.”

The reasons for colour revolutions are clear, and evidence has subsequently emerged, thanks to documents (correspondence, reports, videos, etc.) that have been leaked. The Serbian uprising (2000) that followed in the footsteps of NATO's bombing of Belgrade (1999), the Georgian "Rose Revolution" (2003), the Ukrainian "Orange Revolution" (2005), and the Maidan uprising in Kiev (2014) were all part of NATO imperialism's policy of encircling Russia. While the idiots of the liberals and postmodernists within the international left applauded these events, we revolutionary Marxists opposed these from day one in each case. Concrete data later emerged proving the correctness of our stance. A video of US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland ("fuck the EU!") regarding Maidan provided sufficient clues even at that time. The US had gone so far as to collaborate with Ukrainian fascists and this led the EU to object. Now, in videos that have emerged lately, it is indisputably clear, with much franker statements from Nuland and other US officials, that Maidan was organised according to a US script.

Anything even coming close to this in the Arab revolution? Conspiracy theorists talked a lot of nonsense, but the US has been embracing Al Sisi, who overthrew the revolutionary regime in Egypt, indisputably the king in the chess game of the Arab revolution, since 2013. Moreover, the conspiracy theoreticians claimed that the US plot aimed to bring Islamists to power, yet both the Egyptian dictator Mubarak and Tunisia's Ben Ali were abominable figures who never deviated from the orders of, respectively, the US and France. In both countries, imperialism applauded the forces of the old order crushing of the Islamists at a certain stage (quite early on in Egypt, much later in Tunisia).

We will not dwell on this much longer. In the new wave of uprisings and revolutions, when the conspiracy crowd cry wolf without presenting any concrete evidence, we will label them as enemies of the people. Let us assume for a moment that so-called “Maoists" in power in Nepal were overthrown by China's enemies and that Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh was brought down because she had a friendly policy towards China. So why is it that the conspirators have bothered with Madagascar, a faithful follower of the Françafrique policy aimed at perpetuating France's former colonies’ subjection through neo-colonial methods? Or why would the conspirators jeopardise the throne of King Mohammed VI of Morocco, one of the European Union's most trusted playthings in the Maghreb and more generally in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, and primarily of France and Spain? (Morocco is one of the four countries that signed the despicable Abraham Accords!) Only when the conspiracy theoreticians have answered these questions can any reasonable discussion start.

There is also the issue of how to approach large popular uprisings, especially those that focus on social issues, poverty, unemployment, public services etc., i.e. the problems of workers, peasants and labourers (Morocco, Madagascar, Nepal and Indonesia directly, as well as Bangladesh indirectly, are precisely instances where such movements have flared).

Why should Soros, one of the world's richest financial capitalists, who, through his Open Society Foundation, dogmatically supports the most savage form of capitalism, incite the people in various countries against poverty, unemployment and misery? And why should he do so systematically in the poorest countries on various continents? Ultimately, one feels compelled to say that conspiracy theorists are really telling us that revolutions are no longer possible, that it is only the rich pulling the threads for their own interests behind what seem to be rebellions and revolutions. Nothing serious.

Is the Arab revolution awakening?

Madagascar is a country few people know about. It is a huge island (population 31 million), a former French colony with a very important geostrategic location. Today its youth are engaged in a very important struggle. Power cuts lasting 10 to 12 hours a day, finally ending late at night, so that mothers, fearing attack on their way home from work through pitch-dark streets, cannot find the opportunity to cook dinner for their children. Students not able to use their computers and cannot study. Water cut off for long hours. In short, a miserable life is lived in a country where, while the countryside was once well-known for its poverty, now poverty and deprivation have devastated city life. Despite having lost 22 lives by the time these lines were written, the Gen Z youth continue to fight. These young people, who, despite their youth, successfully appealed to public sector workers to stage a general strike (industry is virtually non-existent in the country) and who are completely alienated from the establishment politicians, have won a place in all our hearts with their struggle.

But Morocco is a very different country. It is part of the geography of the MENA region, which is of immense importance for the entire world situation.

This importance stems specifically from three reasons. The first is that while the Mashriq (Eastern) region of the Arab world, essentially West Asia (or the Middle East), is experiencing a disastrous period (genocide in Gaza, the impending catastrophe in Lebanon due to the turmoil and pressure to disarm Hezbollah, the threat of civil war and small-scale genocides in Syria, the destruction caused by Zionist bombardment in Yemen, the danger of a new Zionist attack in Iran, etc.), the outbreak of an uprising in the Maghreb that could lead to a revolution is an important ray of hope. It has always been confirmed that the “law of communicating vessels" applies in the Arab world. Let us recall just the last three waves of great change: Nasserism, the rise of Islamic movements, and the Arab revolution have spread, in the Arab world, from country to country at a more or less rapid pace. Morocco, of course, is not a central country in the Arab world like, for instance, Egypt, which has always played a key role in Arab history. On the contrary, Morocco is a country with somewhat distinctive features. But as we have written earlier, at a time when a reaction, indeed a feeling of humiliation, is building up within Arab society against the disgrace caused by Arab states merely watching, doing nothing apart from hypocritical declarations, a much smaller spark than in normal times can ignite a huge fire.

The second reason why the struggle in Morocco is important is the backdrop provided by recent historical developments. We are still at a stage where the memories of the 2011-2013 and (in some countries) 2018-2019 revolutions in the Arab world have not yet faded. Most of the former revolutionaries of 2011 in Cairo and Tunis, in Sana'a and Manama are still between 35 and 40 years old. To those who ask, "But what about Morocco?", we should point out that if the spread of the revolution during the Arab spring cast in a gradation of intensity, Morocco belongs to the second tier, immediately after the first tier composed of Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen and Bahrain. It is precisely because, after 20 February 20011, a large mass movement in Morocco began to shake not only the government but also the palace that the King was forced to promise constitutional reforms and the strengthening of democratic law and politics in his address to the people on 9 March 2011. However, when the mass movement fell for this and subsided, the “reforms” that were subsequently implemented remained largely symbolic, and later became subject to erosion, losing any teeth they initially had.